MARKETS BECOME A MEAT GRINDER / DAVE´S DAILY

Markets Become A Meat Grinder

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As I noted previously the rally in major indexes had an upside target near the top of the 2015 trading range.

For many of these indexes, this was achieved early this week. So it’s no surprise markets now become more uncertain.

An important note from Bloomberg as displayed in the chart below, earnings aren’t as good as some in the media have suggested.



Economic data Wednesday was mixed overall. ADP Employment Report was modestly weaker at 182K vs prior 190K; ISM Non-Manufacturing Index soared to 59.1 vs prior 56.9; PMI Services Index fell slightly to 54.8 vs prior 55.1; and, the Trade Deficit improved given a drop in oil imports to $-40B vs prior $-48B.

The Fed was much in the news given Fed Chair Yellen’s confusing testimony to Congress. First she stated again the economy was strong enough to raise interest rates in December, but then added later, should conditions worsen, negative interest rates would be on the table. All one can conclude from all this is more confusion.

If the Fed needs any evidence the economy is slowing all they need do is look at the transportation data and see it is.



And today Maersk announced lay-offs due to weak shipping.

Stocks weakened on the news, the dollar rallied while commodities and bond prices fell.

Market sectors moving higher included: Utilities (XLU), China (FXI), Shanghai (PEK), Taiwan (EWT), Hong Kong (EWH) and the Dollar (UUP)

Market sectors moving lower included: Everything else.

The top ETF daily market movers by percentage change in volume whether rising or falling is available daily.

Volume was modestly higher while breadth per the WSJ was mostly negative.


 

Charts of the Day

Major U.S. Markets (7)
$NYMO (1)
$NYSI (1)
$VIX (1)

• SPY 5 MINUTE

  
  
  
  
  

• SPX DAILY

  
  
  
  

• SPX WEEKLY

  
  
  
  

• INDU DAILY

  
  
  
  

• INDU WEEKLY

  
  
  
  

• RUT WEEKLY

  
  
  
  

• NDX WEEKLY

  
  
  
  

• NYMO DAILY

  
  
  The NYMO is a market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. When readings are +60/-60 markets are extended short-term.
  
  

• NYSI DAILY

  
  
  The McClellan Summation Index is a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator. It is a market breadth indicator, and interpretation is similar to that of the McClellan Oscillator, except that it is more suited to major trends. I believe readings of +1000/-1000 reveal markets as much extended.
  
  

• VIX WEEKLY

  
  
  The VIX is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge". Our own interpretation is highlighted in the chart above. The VIX measures the level of put option activity over a 30-day period. Greater buying of put options (protection) causes the index to rise.
  
  

 




































I’ll cut this commentary short again Wednesday since while markets were weaker overall, there wasn’t anything severe.

Thursday features the usual round of data including, Jobless Claims and Productivity and Costs.

More Fed governors will be making speeches Thursday with Patrick Harker, Charles Evans, Daniel Tarullo, Dennis Lockhart, William Dudley and Stanley Fischer.

They seem to be on the campaign trail advocating whatever it is the Fed believes is true.

Frankly, they talk too much.

Let’s see what happens.