viernes, 3 de abril de 2015

viernes, abril 03, 2015
Saudi oil infrastructure at risk as Mid-East conflagration spreads

The war against Yemen further entrenches al-Qaeda in the country and threatens to ignite a sectarian backlash within Saud Arabia itself

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

9:00PM BST 30 Mar 2015

People gather at the site of a drone strike on the road between Yafe and Radfan districts of the southern Yemeni province of Lahj
It may require a full-blown invasion by land forces to secure control in Yemen Photo: Reuters
 
 
Saudi Arabia’s escalating intervention in Yemen is a high-stakes gamble that risks back-firing in a series of complex ways, ultimately endangering Saudi oil infrastructure and the security of global energy supply.
 
Military analysts say there is little chance that air strikes by a Saudi-led coalition of Sunni countries will subjugate the Iranian-backed Houthi forces in Yemen. It may require a full-blown invasion by land forces to secure control. Large concentrations of Saudi armour and artillery are already massing near the border, though this may simply be a negotiating ploy.
 
The longer the conflict goes on, the greater the risks that it will stir up internal hatred in a country that has traditionally been relatively free of sectarian violence. Adam Baron, from the European Council on Foreign Relations, said the inflammatory comments about the Sunni-Shia struggle by politicians across the region are becoming “self-fulfilling prophecies”.
 
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsular (AQAP) – thought to be the most lethal of the jihadi franchises, and a redoubt for Saudi jihadis – already controls a swathe of central Yemen and is the chief beneficiary of the power vacuum.
 
AQAP can plan terrorist strikes against Saudi targets from a deepening strategic hinterland with increasing impunity. All US military advisers have been withdrawn from Yemen, and much of the country’s counter-terror apparatus is disintegrating. It is becoming harder to harry al-Qaeda cells or carry out drone strikes with precision.
 
The great unknown is whether a protracted Saudi war against Shia forces in Yemen – and possibly a “Vietnam-style” quagmire – might tug at the delicate political fabric within Saudi Arabia itself. The kingdom’s giant Ghawar oil field lies in the Eastern Province, home to an aggrieved Shia minority.

“If the Saudis continue this war – and if they keep killing civilians – this is going to create internal instability in Saudi Arabia itself,” said Ali al-Ahmed, from the Institute for Gulf Affairs in Washington.

Large numbers of Saudi youth are disaffected. An estimated 6,000 have been recruited by al-Qaeda and a further 3,000 have fought for ISIS in Syria and Iraq. While the Saudis have a formidable security apparatus, with a 30,000-strong force guarding the oil infrastructure, the risk of infiltration is high even among clans linked to the royal family.


Two al-Qaeda suicide bombers in a pipeline attack in 2006 were scions of the ruling elite, one a close relation of a leading Wahhabi cleric and the chief of the religious police.

The Institute for Gulf Affairs said the neuralgic point for the oil infrastructure is “Grand Central Station” at Qateef in the Eastern Province, where a network of 12 pipelines run close together, supplying the great Saudi oil terminals at Ras Tanura and Dharan.

“These lines run close to major highways and population centres, making them an easy target for quick hit-and-run attacks,” he said.

An Al-Qaeda cell arrested in April 2007 was plotting to hijack civilian airliners and crash them into the Saudi oil "crown jewels", the oil facilities at Ras Tanura and Abqaiq. Terrorists revealed under interrogation that engineers from the state oil giant Aramco may have been recruited.

Saudi Arabia’s Shia minority make up 20pc of the population. Though treated as second class citizens, and barred from key positions, they have been quiescent so far. Yet the risks of a clash are growing as the Middle East becomes engulfed in an epic Sunni-Shia struggle, sharpening lines of cleavage.

The terrorist group Saudi Hezbollah – which killed 19 American air force personnel in the Khobar Towers attack in 1996, acting as an arms-length cell for the Iranians – has issued a number of threats against Saudi oil facilities. Tehran has vowed revenge against Saudi Arabia for driving down the oil price and now for the air strikes on Yemen: the clear risk is that it will operate through Hezbollah allies on the ground inside the kingdom.



Oil markets have yet to react to these longer-term political threats. US crude prices have slumped back to $49 a barrel, giving up the $5 spike triggered by the bombing of Yemen last week.

Michael Wittner, a former CIA analyst now at Societe Generale, said the only serious risk is a disruption of the Bab el-Mandeb strait, a potential choke-point for 3.8m barrels a day b/d of oil cargoes at the mouth of the Red Sea. The passage is so narrow that only one tanker can pass each way at the same time.




Al-Qaeda has in the past launched suicide attacks against shipping from speedboats around the port of Aden, without doing much damage. A well-armed flotilla of Nato and US naval forces currently patrols the stretch.

Mr Wittner said the greater risk for the oil markets is a further glut as an estimated 1.9m barrels of oil per day flood the world over the second quarter, and as a likely deal with Iran on its nuclear programme opens the way to more supply at the end of the year. “We believe there will be continued downward pressure on oil prices. Any remaining geopolitical risk premium from Yemen should dissipate quickly,” he said.

Michael Lewis, head of commodities at Deutsche Bank, said the conflict in Yemen is reminder that a supply shock remains an ever-present risk, even though US oil inventories have reached record levels and almost everybody in the markets is talking about how low prices could fall.

“We think the market could tighten in May or June as lower prices finally bite and the US stops adding supply. It could be an important inflexion point,” he said.

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