IF ONLY America could abolish the first quarter, its economy would look so much better. In 2014 a cold snap triggered by the “polar vortex” caused GDP to fall by 2.1% at an annualised rate. This time round, more cold weather, a decline in oil drilling and a labour dispute at west-coast ports is causing growth estimates to be revised down once more.

Figures for manufacturing output, durable-goods orders, housing starts and retail sales have all been weaker than expected. The consensus forecast for growth in the first quarter is 1.4% at an annualised rate. But a nimbler model created by the Atlanta Federal Reserve points to just 0.2%—barely any growth at all.

A weak first-quarter number will make life even harder for the Federal Reserve, which has hinted that it might push up interest rates later this year. Inflation is running at zero, so the justification for higher rates would look very flimsy if the growth outlook was faltering too.

However, as in 2014, most economists expect the first-quarter figures to be a blip, with activity rebounding in the rest of the year. Low oil prices should be a boost to spending; consumer-confidence figures released on March 31st showed an upturn. The employment figures for March, which are due to be published on April 4th, will be the next big test of the economy’s strength. The Fed has indicated that the labour market may trigger a decision to raise rates; if unemployment falls much below the current rate of 5.5%, wage pressures might start to appear. Strong figures on job creation have generally belied the weak tone of numbers on durable-goods orders and retail sales.

Some investors may be inclined to take a relaxed view of the Fed’s dilemma. After all, if the economy is strong enough to allow the central bank to raise interest rates, that would be good news; and if the economy isn’t strong enough, then investors will continue to enjoy the benefit of low rates.

However, that rosy view is being somewhat undermined by the recent weakness in corporate profits.

After plunging in 2008, profits rebounded strongly, hitting their highest levels as a proportion of GDP since the second world war. That trend may be coming to an end. Corporate profits in America fell by 1.6% in the fourth quarter of 2014, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and were 6.4% lower than in the same quarter of 2013. Those figures do not translate directly into the profits of S&P 500 companies, many of which are multinationals: their earnings per share rose at an annual rate of 7.8% in the fourth quarter, with the help of buy-backs, which spread profits among a smaller number of shares (see chart).

However, the dollar’s surge in 2015 is dragging down earnings forecasts for the current year: earnings per share for S&P 500 firms are now expected to rise by only 2.6%. Three factors are at work. First, the strong dollar is reducing the value of profits earned in other currencies.

Second, those foreign profits are being squeezed by a slowdown in developing economies. And third, the fall in the oil price is battering the profits of the energy sector.

Wall Street analysts tend to be optimistic when it comes to medium-term profit projections.

After a sluggish 2015, they think 2016 will be a bumper year, with earnings per share rising by 12.9%. That allows them to claim that the market looks cheap when future earnings growth is taken into account: using their 2016 forecasts, the market is on a prospective price-earnings ratio of 15.3.

But if the market is compared with past earnings numbers, the picture looks rather different.

The cyclically-adjusted price-earnings ratio (which averages profits over ten years) is currently 27.9, according to Robert Shiller of Yale University. The long-term average is 16.6. The sluggish performance of profits may explain why the American stockmarket has struggled to make progress so far this year.

Investors in the rest of the world should also be concerned about weak economic data. There have been 29 instances of monetary easing by central banks around the world in the past five months, an indication that monetary authorities are worried about growth. Low government-bond yields and falling commodity prices are further signals of poor economic momentum.

Although there have been tentative signs that the euro-zone economy is recovering, the world has been very reliant on China and America in recent years. China’s growth rate has slowed to 7% or so from the double-digit rates regularly seen in the past decade. If America’s growth slows as well, the global economy may find itself becalmed.