martes, 28 de octubre de 2014

martes, octubre 28, 2014
October 24, 2014, 11:32 AM ET

Sales of New Homes Worse Than Most Years in 1980s, 1990s

By Nick Timiraos
Home sales rose to their highest annual pace in September in six years, but the new-home market is still depressed by historical standards.

To get a sense of just how painful the housing downturn has been, consider this: excluding the post-2008 depression, sales this year are running at their slowest pace since 1982.

Back then, interest rates were above 15% as the Federal Reserve fought off inflation and unemployment rose above 10%.

Of course, the recessions of the early 1980s were followed by big snapbacks in construction of the kind that haven’t been seen following the 2007-09 recession.

Through the first nine months of this year, builders have signed contracts to sell some 337,000 homes. That’s up just 1.7% from 331,000 through the same period last year, and up from the low of 233,000 in 2011.

Still, this year’s level is below every other year from 1983 to 2009. In 1982, builders had sold 226,000 homes in the first nine months of the year. Sales doubled to 478,000 in 1983.

Friday’s figures suggest that 2014 will be a giant letdown for the new-home sales market.

One sort-of bright spot: For the third quarter of 2014, new home sales were still up 17% from the year-earlier period. Why “sort of” bright? Summer 2013 saw a big drop in sales following a rise in mortgage rates from around 3.5% to 4.5%.

Still, improvement is improvement. Sales in the second quarter stood 5% below the year-earlier level, and the first quarter was down 2%.

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